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He is the singer and songwriter for The Mr. T Experience and he wrote King Dork. His new book, Andromeda Klein is not as great but still good. His next book is a King Dork sequel called King Dork, Approximately. And a film adaptation of King Dork is in development with Will Ferrell producing.
Here is the inteview. And here is Frank Portman’s blog.
Wired reports that the Soviet Union actually had a doomsday device and kept it a secret.
“The whole point of the doomsday machine is lost if you keep it a secret!” cries Dr. Strangelove. “Why didn’t you tell the world?” After all, such a device works as a deterrent only if the enemy is aware of its existence. In the movie, the Soviet ambassador can only lamely respond, “It was to be announced at the party congress on Monday.”
So why was the US not informed about Perimeter? Kremlinologists have long noted the Soviet military’s extreme penchant for secrecy, but surely that couldn’t fully explain what appears to be a self-defeating strategic error of extraordinary magnitude.
The silence can be attributed partly to fears that the US would figure out how to disable the system. But the principal reason is more complicated and surprising. According to both Yarynich and Zheleznyakov, Perimeter was never meant as a traditional doomsday machine. The Soviets had taken game theory one step further than Kubrick, Szilard, and everyone else: They built a system to deter themselves.
By guaranteeing that Moscow could hit back, Perimeter was actually designed to keep an overeager Soviet military or civilian leader from launching prematurely during a crisis. The point, Zheleznyakov says, was “to cool down all these hotheads and extremists. No matter what was going to happen, there still would be revenge. Those who attack us will be punished.”
The logic is a tad fishy. But it is not obvious that you should reveal a doomsday device if you have one. It is impossible to prove that you have one so if it really had a deterrent effect you would announce you have one even if you don’t. So it can’t have a deterrent effect. And therefore you will always turn it off.
What you should worry about is announcing you have a doomsday device to an enemy who previously was not aware that there was such a thing. It still won’t have any deterrent effect but it will surely escalate the conflict. (via free exchange via Mallesh Pai.)
With a lot about the making of Where the Wild Things Are which opens Oct 16:
Right away, Jonze told me, he could see that the heads were absurdly heavy. Only one of the actors appeared able to walk in a straight line. A few of them called out from within their costumes that they felt like they were going to tip over. Jonze and Landay had no choice but to tell the Henson people to tear apart the 50-pound heads and remove the remote-controlled mechanical eyeballs.
And other stuff.
It was the only skate video, certainly, to depict a carload of skateboarders consuming what appeared to be vast quantities of Bacardi rum before plunging into a canyon.(To get the shot, Jonze placed a brick on the gas pedal.)
In a frightening new paper, Philip Munz, Ioan Hudea, Joe Imad, and Robert J. Smith say NO! It’s such scary news that the BBC covered it.
In their model, Susceptible (S) humans can turn into Zombies (Z) with probability β if they meet each other. But Zombies can also rise from dead susceptibles or the so-called Removed R at rate ς. In a mixed population with no birth, S will definitely shrink. Even if S kill Z at rate α, Z can always re-appear from R and never die off. Hence, we end up in a pure Zombie equilibrium. There is no channel for S to grow and there is a channel for Z to grow and there you have it.
Of course, if there is birth then things change. In their model, the authors look at the case where the (exogenous) birth rate Π is zero. But the birth rate should also depend on the fractions of S and Z in the population. If S is large then there should be frequent S-S encounters. Assume away gender issues for simplicity and these S-S encounters should lead to progeny. Even if the birth rate is low, it is multiplies by S-squared the chance of an S-S meeting while the zombie production rate βSZ + ςR is close to ςR if Z is close to zero. If S is large, so ΠS > ςR, this stabilizes a good S equilibrium where a small fraction of zombies does not eventually take over.
This is a small trivial extension but with a good title (“Make Love to win the Zombie War”), it would be an interesting sequel.
There is another solution: cremation is better than burial. I’m not an expert on zombies but I strongly suspect a cremated body cannot reappear in zombie form. Then, if we can kill of zombies fast enough (high α), we should be fine. Phew. But while the human race is safe, all individuals are in danger. I will not sleep well tonight.
(Hat Tip: PLL)
The NY Times has an article about a new wave of independent films and their marketing.
When “The Age of Stupid,” a climate change movie, “opens” across the United States in September, it will play on some 400 screens in a one-night event, with a video performance by Thom Yorke of Radiohead, all paid for by the filmmakers themselves and their backers. In Britain, meanwhile, the film has been showing via an Internet service that lets anyone pay to license a copy, set up a screening and keep the profit.
The article is about the variety of roll-your-own distribution and marketing campaigns employed by filmmakers who lack studio backing. But the lede is buried:
Famous fans like Courtney Love were soon chattering online about the film. And an army of “virtual street teamers” — Internet advocates who flood social networks with admiring comments, sometimes for a fee, sometimes not — were recruited by a Web consultant, Sarah Lewitinn, who usually works the music scene.
Here is wikipedia on street teams. The origin is traced back to the KISS army, a grass-roots fan club that aggressively promoted the band KISS and later “vertically integrated” with the KISS marketing machine where they had access to exclusive promotional merchandise.
Today you can hire a consultant to assemble a street team to promote your band, movie, (hmmm… blog?), … A good consultant will find (or make) fans with a selected personality type, street-cred, and social network and organize them into a guerilla marketing squad armed with swag.
Virtual street teams operate in online social networks. Presumably then, actual people are no longer required. A good consultant can manufacture online identities, position them in a social network, getting Twitter followers and Facebook friends and cultivate the marketing opportunities from there. You can imagine the pitch: “We can mobilize 10,000 follower-tweets per day…”
Here is the web site of ForTheWin.com, the agency of Sara Lewitinn who coordinated the virtual street team for the film Anvil! The Story of Anvil.
For The Win! is an cooperative of club urchins and nightlife denizens charged with the task of defending the best of pop culture from the daily onslaught of the whack. At night we comb the streets in search of the best fashion, art, music, and movies New York City has to offer. By day we make sure we spread the word to the world by any and all means necessary of the internet to it’s biggest platforms without skipping a step or taking anything for granted. Each of our campaigns is as unique as the artist it represents.
Note they also count Slighly Stoopid, Electrocute, and The Pet Shop Boys (!) as clients.
Today at Peet’s in Evanston I was trying to work out a model for this idea Sandeep and I are working on related to the game theory of torture. I started drawing a litle graph and then got lost in thought. I must have looked a little weird (nothing unusual there) because the woman next to me started asking me what was up with this squiggly plot on my pad of paper.
Most economists dread these moments when someone asks you what you do and you have to tell them you’re an economist and then prepare to deflect the inevitable questions and/or accusations “what’s going to happen with interest rates?” “when’s the economy going to turn around?” Usually I just mumble and wait for the person to get bored and go on with her reading. For some reason I was talkative today.
I told her I was a game theorist. “What’s that for?” I told her I was working on a theory of torture. She looked horrified. “How do you make a theory of torture?”
I told her that using game theory is a lot like screenwriting. Imagine you were a film-maker and you wanted to make a point about torture. You would invent characters and put them in the roles of torturer and torturee and you would describe the events. You would depict how the torturer would plan his torture and how he would the torturee would react and how this would lead the torturer to adjust his approach. If the film was going to be effective it would have believable characters and it would have to show the audience a plausible hypothetical situation and what happens when these characters act out their roles in that situation. In short, its a model.
(As I was saying this I remembered that I learned to think of economics and literature in this way about 20 years ago from Tyler Cowen. And he has a nice paper on it here.)
She looked even more horrified. But I was pretty pleased. I started thinking about Resevoir Dogs (nsfw).
While scripts and models are constrained by a similar requirement of coherence between character and events, there are differences and this makes them complementary. A model necessarily maps out the entire game tree, while a script describes just one path. In a model every counterfactual is analyzed and we see their consequences and this explains why those paths are not taken, but a film is a far more vivid account of the path taken. In a model the off-equilibrium outcomes are the results of mistakes while a well-conceived script can bring in plausible external developments to place the characters in unexpected situations.
Of course film-makers get invited to better parties.
“These are relatively simple physical equations, so you program them into the computer and therefore kind of let the computer animate things for you, using those physics,” said May. “So in every frame of the animation, (the computer can) literally compute the forces acting on those balloons, (so) that they’re buoyant, that their strings are attached, that wind is blowing through them. And based on those forces, we can compute how the balloon should move.”
This process is known as procedural animation, and is described by an algorithm or set of equations, and is in stark contrast to what is known as key frame animation, in which the animators explicitly define the movement of an object or objects in every frame.
Why stop there? Next, we can use models from the behavioral sciences, program a few equations and let the characters, dialog, and action animate themselves by following the solution of the model. Don’t believe me? Here’s how to procedurally animate Romeo and Juliet.
I have been enjoying reading the blog of Seth Godin. In a recent post he wrote the following.
It’s quite possible that the era of the professional reviewer is over. No longer can a single individual (except maybe Oprah) make a movie, a restaurant or a book into a hit or a dud.
Not only can an influential blogger sell thousands of books, she can spread an idea that reaches others, influencing not just the reader, but the people who read that person’s blog or tweets. And so it spreads.
The post goes in another direction after that, but I started thinking about this conventional view that the web reduces concentration in the market for professional opinions. No doubt blogs, discussion boards, web 2.0 make it easier for people with opinions to express them and people looking for opinions to find those that suit their taste.
But does this necessarily decrease concentration? If everybody had similar tastes in movies, say, the effect of lowering barriers to entry would be to allow the market to coordinate on the one guy in the world who can best judge movies according to that standard and articulate his opinion. Of course people have different tastes and the conventional view is based on the idea that the web allows segmentation according to taste. But what if talent in evaluating movies means the ability to judge how people with different tastes would react to different movies? A review would be a contingent recommendation like “if you like this kind of movie, this is for you. if you like that kind of movie, then stay away from this one but you might like that one instead.”
In fact, a third effect of the web is to make it easy for experts to find out what different tastes there are out there and how they react to movies. This tends to increase centralization because it creates a natural monopoly in cataloging tastes and matching tastes to recommendations. Indeed, Netflix’s marketing strategy is based on this idea and I am lead to hold out Netflix as a counterexample to the conventional view.
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