R. Duncan Luce has been elected fellow of the Econometric Society in the year 2009. He is 84. How could it take so long?
Here’s a model. There is a large set of economists and each year you have to decide which to admit to a select group of “fellows.” Assume away the problems of committee decision-making and say that an economist will be admitted if his achievements are above some standard. The problem is that there are many economists and its costly to investigate each one to see if they pass the bar.
So you pick a shortlist of candidates who are contenders and you investigate those. Some pass, some don’t. Now, the next problem is that there are many fellows and many non-fellows and its hard to keep track of exactly who is in and who is out. And again it’s costly to go and check every vita to find out who has not been admitted yet.
So when you pick your shortlist, you are including only economists who you think are not already fellows. Someone like Duncan Luce, who certainly should have been elected 30 years ago most likely was elected 30 years ago so you would never consider putting him on your shortlist.
Indeed, the simple rule of thumb you would use is to focus on young people for your shortlist. Younger economists are more likely to be both good enough and not already fellows.
Cheap Talk 
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November 19, 2009 at 8:57 am
michaelwebster
Duncan Luce’s work ought to be much more well known.
I don’t understand why most economists don’t learn more about measure theory in the mathematics of psychology.
My bet is that Luce’s insights have far more impact that the current spate of popularity of “irrational behavior”.
November 19, 2009 at 8:58 am
michaelwebster
And I should have also included Louis Narens and Peter Fishburn in the above post.
November 19, 2009 at 4:44 pm
Vince Crawford
Jeff, just guessing, but on a boring procedural note, it’s quite likely that Luce was elected long ago and didn’t join, thus didn’t become a fellow till now.
There’s a ratchet: If you’re elected as a non-member and you join that year, and then quit, you become an “inactive” fellow. But if you don’t join when you’re elected, you don’t become a fellow. (At least, that is how it used to work.)
Schelling officially became a fellow quite late, I presume after having been elected many years earlier. Aside from Schelling, who became a fellow two years after his Nobel prize, perhaps the most spectacular instance of late election was Nash, who became a fellow four years before he shared the Nobel prize.
The chair of the nominating committee used to be given a list of everyone who was previously nominated but didn’t get elected (a memory kludge? or is this even a kludge?). But this list, although it seemed to go back indefinitely, was also not that accurate. And for what it’s worth, Luce wasn’t on it, at least not in 2001.
Vince
November 20, 2009 at 9:05 am
jeff
Thanks for the inside scoop Vince.
November 19, 2009 at 6:52 pm
John
Jeff, have you been elected as well? You deserve it!
November 20, 2009 at 9:38 am
Lones Smith
“And again it’s costly to go and check every vita to find out who has not been admitted yet.”
Maybe so, but why not just check the May issue of *Econometrica*?
Honestly, we may kick the butt of sports writers on many intellectual fronts (and maybe on the field), but the way that halls of fame choose athletes is far better conceived than our own fellows hall of fame, with fewer errors of omission and commission. (I hesitate to add music halls of fame with Billy’s Joel’s far too late induction!) Networking counts tremendously more in our election process. Controlling for CV, you get in earlier the higher your schools rank, the more fellows you have as colleagues / coauthors / advisors, etc.
I think the best insight into Duncan Luce’s delayed entry is his location. I venture that not too many of his colleagues are Irvine are fellows…
BTW Congratulations, Jeff, on your election!! Am delighted to be in your 2009 fellows class. You’re JET and QJE place you in my hall of fame.