Throw a party. And use a system like evite.com to handle the invitations. There is a typical pattern to the responses over time. You will have an initial flurry of yeses and regrets followed by a long period of silence punctuated by sporadic responses which continues to the days before the party. Then there is a final flurry and that is when you learn if your friends are real friends.
Because people come to your party for one of two reasons. Either they like you or they just feel obligated for reasons like you are an important co-worker or they don’t want to hurt your feelings, etc. Think of how these two types of people will handle your invitation.
An invitation is an option that can be exercised at any time before the date of the party. The people who did not respond immediately are waiting to decide whether to exercise the option. If she’s a true friend then this is because she has a potential conflict that would prevent her attending. She is waiting and hoping to avoid that conflict. When she is sure there is no conflict she will say yes.
The other people are hoping for an excuse not to come. Once they get a better offer, manage to schedule a conflicting business trip, or otherwise commit themselves, they will send their regrets.
In both cases, when the party is imminent, the option value of waiting is gone. Those who want to come but haven’t gotten out of their conflict give up and send their regrets. Those who hoped to get out of it but failed to come up with a believable excuse give up and accept.
So, a simple measure of how much your friends like you is the proportion of acceptances that arrive in the final days. Lots of acceptances means you better set aside a few extra drinks for yourself.
13 comments
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November 15, 2010 at 7:47 am
Lea
Another gem of logic that describes the changes in the way people socialize in the facebook generation.
November 15, 2010 at 9:13 am
Divya
But people dont always invite “real friends” for parties no? I thought people invite interesting people for parties (or those that “do well” in parties). If it is a birthday party for a kid, then they are inclined to invite acquaintances with kids too. 😛
November 15, 2010 at 10:00 am
ryan
i think the fact that you can change your RSVP on sites like evite weakens the option comparison. you can’t un-exercise an option.
November 30, 2012 at 2:37 pm
Fitri
Do people rlleay have trouble with this? The average beginning novel is 80,000 words. After you\’ve done describing the character, given him or her a love interest, and populated the world with characters, you spend a few chapters on the journey and then the climax and bam done. You are at your word limit!
November 15, 2010 at 5:58 pm
Daniel
But if people prefer you to think they really like you, this wouldn’t be incentive-compatible, right? They would reject the invitation right away and avoid being labeled as someone who doesn’t like you enough.
November 15, 2010 at 7:03 pm
mike
Don’t people sometimes accept/decline based on who else has accepted/declined? look for a flurry of responses right after someone accepts or declines, and then you’ll know which of your friends inspires strong feelings.
November 17, 2010 at 2:52 pm
TVHE » Economists and Facebook events
[…] }); }Yes, this is how a general economist analyses social situations: An invitation is an option that can be exercised at […]
November 18, 2010 at 2:53 am
Daniel Reeves
Are you assuming that true conflicts are rare and better parties are common? I think only with that assumption can we infer bad news from more last minute yeses.
November 18, 2010 at 4:58 pm
jeff
i am assuming that people with true conflicts will do one of three things. if they don’t want to come, they will say no at the very beginning, citing the conflict. if they do want to come then they will either get out of their conflict some time in the interim and say yes before the endgame or fail to get out of the conflict and be forced to say no at the very end.
so people with true conflicts are never in the group that says yes at the very end.
people with better parties will say no at some point, so they are not in the group that says yes at the end either. that group is made up of people who were holding out for better parties or other conflicts and failed to find one. none of these people like you. so lots of yeses at the end is bad news.
November 18, 2010 at 6:18 pm
Daniel Reeves
I understand now; thanks! So it’s not that true conflicts are rare but that potential conflicts that happen to clear up at the last minute are rare.
November 18, 2010 at 10:53 pm
jeff
yep
August 8, 2012 at 9:34 pm
Marcia
i know i am not liked because there were 2 to 3 parties i had where i had to cancel because hardly anyone was going to come – most people didnt even respond. there were 2 other parties i didnt cancel but very few peple came to and again, a good amount didnt even respond. i’m a loser.
August 9, 2012 at 10:10 am
jeff
Marcia, parties are no fun anyway. You are a winner