Well, only indirectly but here is my thinking: one comment by Nathan in response to my post yesterday suggested that John Bolton thinks every international interaction is the game of Chicken, not just the recent episode with North Korea. Schelling thought a lot about Chicken and here is what he said in Arms and Influence in 1966:
Is a Berlin Crisis…..mainly bilateral competition in which each side should be motivated mainly towards winning over the other? Or is it a shared danger – a case of both being pushed to the brink of war – in which statesmanlike forbearance, collaborative withdrawal and prudent negotiation should dominate?
He classifies the Cuban Missile Crisis as the second sort of game and the Hungarian Uprising as the first. He points out that it can be hard to tell which kind of crisis a country is involved in. So, we have different games and uncertainty about the game one is playing. This is level of knowledge from 1966. It disappeared in the last 40 odd years. Hopefully it can be recovered.
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August 7, 2009 at 2:51 am
Alex
I don’t know exactly what goes on in the White House Situation Room during these crises but as I would speculate that we haven’t lost this knowledge over the past 40 years.
As I said on the other post, I think that when you’re advising the President and when you’re talking on Fox News, you will say completely different things. This has to do with different incentives. When you’re advising the President you have incentives to give the President the best advice that you can.
When you’re talking on Fox News you want to make headlines, sell books, get speaking gigs at conservative events, etc. In that case you have an incentive to say whatever those people want to hear even if it is intellectually dishonest.
I would be interested to take a poll of everyone who has served on the NSC staff, and high ranking posts in the State and Defense Departments in the past few administrations and ask them if they have read Arms and Influence and if so, how recently.
August 7, 2009 at 8:19 am
sandeep
Hi Alex: I’m not sure I agree with you. When Bolton words really mattered, when he worked in the Bush administration, I can’t recall him tempering his words to reduce escalation. Can you?
August 8, 2009 at 9:58 am
JJ
This is a terrific post. Thanks!
August 8, 2009 at 4:44 pm
Alex
Bolton has always been outspoken even when serving in the Administration for sure. But the Bush Administration’s approach to North Korea, at least from my observations, was not one big refusal to swerve during chicken approach. Maybe if Bolton were President it would have been or if the President had listened to Bolton more it would have been.
August 8, 2009 at 8:41 pm
billpetti
Excellent post and an important point.
March 20, 2014 at 1:18 pm
Costea
Have you read all the Phoenix books too? I think I like the Buddha ones better. I think i’ll order some more from the librray and see if they will get them in.